By New Frontier Analysts
The latest polls show that most ballot measures for marijuana legalization are leading by wider percentages. The exception is in Nevada, where the electorate is much more evenly split between whether or not to legalize marijuana for adult use or to keep it prohibited.
One of the challenges for marijuana legalization advocates will be GOTV efforts based on the demographic breakdowns of voters. For example, in Massachusetts, older voters tend to oppose legalization in higher percentages. According to a WBUR poll conducted in September, 56 percent of voters who are 60 and older oppose legalizing marijuana, where as 39 percent support it. The numbers are different for younger voters. 65 percent of voters under 30 support legalization. Similar results are present in other state polls, including Arizona, Maine, and Nevada.
In Nevada, where the election is much closer, the breakdown by age is very apparent. Voters age 18 to 34 overwhelmingly support legalization 68 percent to 24 percent. However, the numbers tighten as the voting age group gets older. Only 54% age 35 to 49 support legalization. And voters age 50 to 64 oppose it 48 percent to 40 percent. 68 percent of those 65 and older oppose marijuana legalization.
The issue of older voters opposed to legalization could be a challenge for proponents on election day, because younger voters are much less enthusiastic about voting for either presidential candidate, and therefore, less likely to vote in general. If it appears that one candidate has a state locked-up, younger voters could be discouraged from participating at all, which could put legalization efforts that are closer in polling in jeopardy.
||Portland Press Herald (Conducted by University of New Hampshire Survey Center) (505 LV)
||September 15-20, 2016
||Marijuana Policy Project (610 RV/LV)
||March 7-10, 2016
New Frontier Analysts
Our data scientists drill deep with rigorous analytics to provide insight into key trends and market opportunities. We track the state of cannabis and its regulation in all major legal markets.