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Projected State Market Sales for Ballot Initiatives

Cannabis / Projected State Market Sales for Ballot Initiatives - November 5, 2016

Projected State Market Sales for Ballot Initiatives

On November 8th, five states will be voting on whether or not to fully legalize adult use of cannabis and four states voting on medical cannabis measures. California, the largest cannabis market in the country, is projected to generate $4.3 billion in adult use sales alone by 2020. This is in addition to the $3.3 billion expected in the state medical sales that year. Assuming all five proposed full legalization measures pass they will collectively generate $6.4 billion in new adult use sales by 2020. Similarly, if all four medical initiatives pass, the projected 2020 total sales would be $1.7 billion, of which Florida would account for $1.6 billion reflecting the outsize impact that the state, which is the fourth most populous in the country, would have on the expansion of the U.S. medical cannabis market. The difference in the sizes of medical and adult use markets created by November’s initiatives is part of the reason why in 2020, when the new states are operationally hitting their stride, the total national adult use market will become bigger than the medical market for the first time. The five state adult use states would expand the market by 144%, to an estimated $10.9 billion by 2020, while the medical market will be slightly smaller at $10.8 billion the same year.  Despite the significant expansion of legal cannabis access expected by 2020, California will continue to have an outside impact on the country’s cannabis industry, accounting for 39% of all medical and adult use sales that year.

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