In January, California’s draft budget anticipated $175 million in total cannabis cultivation and retail taxes by June 30.
For Q1-2018 the state collected cannabis taxes totaling $33.6 million (19.2% of the six-month forecast).
New Frontier Data’s revised projections foresee $1.12 billion in medical cannabis and $805 million in adult use, for total cannabis sales of $1.92 billion in 2018.
By 2025 we project $4.72 billion in sales, made up of $760 million in medical and adult-use sales of $3.96 billion.
To revise our numbers, our analysts first revisited our patient count. We initially assumed just under a million patients were visiting medical dispensaries, but significantly reduced that count to 400,000 after speaking with operators in the field.
Our analysts also stretched out our timeline for how quickly illicit users are converting to the legal market.
In this week’s blog, New Frontier Data’s Associate Director of Industry Analytics Kacey Morrissey goes more in depth into how our latest modeling methodology reflects California’s revisions.
