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California Legal Cannabis Projections


  • In January, California’s draft budget anticipated $175 million in total cannabis cultivation and retail taxes by June 30.
  • For Q1-2018 the state collected cannabis taxes totaling $33.6 million (19.2% of the six-month forecast).
  • New Frontier Data’s revised projections foresee $1.12 billion in medical cannabis and $805 million in adult use, for total cannabis sales of $1.92 billion in 2018.
  • By 2025 we project $4.72 billion in sales, made up of $760 million in medical and adult-use sales of $3.96 billion.
  • To revise our numbers, our analysts first revisited our patient count. We initially assumed just under a million patients were visiting medical dispensaries, but significantly reduced that count to 400,000 after speaking with operators in the field.
  • Our analysts also stretched out our timeline for how quickly illicit users are converting to the legal market.
  • In this week’s blog, New Frontier Data’s Associate Director of Industry Analytics Kacey Morrissey goes more in depth into how our latest modeling methodology reflects California’s revisions.