Top 5 U.S. Medical Cannabis Markets in 2020

Based on new analysis by New Frontier Data and Arcview Market Research, the U.S. medical cannabis market is projected to reach approximately $11 billion in total annual sales in 2020. At that point, the two largest medical markets will be in California ($3.3 billion) and Florida ($1.6 billion), which combined will account for nearly half of the entire U.S. medical market. Other major markets which are each projected to total just under $1 billion by 2020 include Michigan, Ohio, and Pennsylvania. Of the five largest 2020 markets, Florida, Ohio, and Pennsylvania all legalized medical cannabis in 2016. The major driver of market size for the five largest markets is their populations. In addition to market regulatory structure characteristics, and social or demographic factors, a major driver of market size for the five largest state markets is the size of their state populations. This is significant as it relates to a trend towards greater national normalization of medical cannabis. These five states alone account for 29% of the nation’s total population. Only three of the the country’s ten most populas states - Georgia, North Carolina, and Texas - have yet to adopt medical cannabis legalization. However, all three states have passed CBD-only laws which are often a precursor to full medical use legalization. It may take some time for the three states to transition to full medical use due to resistance from the conservative state leaders, but legalization advocates are already pushing fo change in the the three states. As more states adopt medical laws, especially in larger states, the stigma long associated with cannabis will erode as more people are exposed to the plant’s therapeutic potential. Expanded cannabis access and use will further fuel the national debate, and the calls for reform of medical cannabis laws at the federal level.