Positive Erosion: How the Legal Cannabis Industry’s Growth Undermines Illicit Markets
October 13, 2020U.S. Medical Cannabis Program Growth
October 18, 2020
- U.S. population growth and rising usage rates will naturally increase the nation’s total number of cannabis consumers.
- However, with 34 existing legal medical states and 11 legal adult-use states, those programs are projected to capture some of the growing demand, and thus erode part of the growth in illicit markets nationwide.
- In 2019, 17% of cannabis sales in the U.S. were estimated to be legal; New Frontier Data estimates that by 2025 more than one-third (34%) of total annual cannabis demand will be met through regulated markets.
- When individual states impose strict market limitations limiting access or creating delays for cannabis, illicit markets tend to recapture consumers.
- In California this year, but 38% of in-state demand will likely have been provided by legal regulated sources, though that share is projected to reach 46% by 2025.
- Meantime, other recently activated recreational markets (e.g., Illinois, Massachusetts) are expected to convert nearly three-quarters of all cannabis sales to legal programs.
