2019 Outlook: Surging Adult Use Sales Drive Legal Market Growth

  • New Frontier Data’s latest U.S. cannabis market forecast shows currently legal medical and adult markets growing from $12.9 billion in 2019 to $20.4 billion in 2022.
  • Nationwide spending on illicit cannabis will grow from $27 billion to $28.1 billion (based on the growth trend of American cannabis consumers).
  • Adult-use sales in the 10 currently legal states will grow to nearly half (49%) of the legal market, and 1/5 of the total market (21%), as those consumers continue migrating from illicit markets to legal ones.
  • Wider choices for products available in regulated markets — with surging demand for higher-priced, non-flower products (e.g., concentrates, edibles, topicals, etc.) — have added to higher spending per consumer in legal markets than in illicit markets.
  • Thus, as more states legalize, and demand for non-flower products continues to surge, the total potential for a fully legal U.S. market is higher yet than the combined $48.5 billion spending forecast for 2022 under the current regulatory system.