Growth of the Canadian Legal Cannabis Industry
- This month marks Canada’s one-year anniversary of legalized adult-use cannabis sales.
- New Frontier Data estimates that 1.5 million adults have consumed legal cannabis throughout Year One, with the total expected to reach 7.3 million through 2024.
- Meantime, Canada’s legal cannabis demand is projected to reach CAD $2.5 billion (USD $1.9 billion) through 2019, growing at a 18.2% compound annual growth rate (CAGR) through 2024 to total CAD $5.8 billion (USD $4.42 billion).
- Overwhelmingly, growth will be fueled by consumers’ conversion from Canada’s sizeable illicit market, and (to a lesser extent) new consumers entering the market.
- New Frontier Data estimates usage rates for Canadians 15-years-old and older to grow from 18% in 2019 to ~25% by 2025.
- The lack of performance and profitability from many of the largest licensed producers listed on Canadian stock exchanges (TSX and CSE) have driven sharp declines in their stock prices in the Cannabis Act era.
- Medical cannabis exports from these producers will remain limited in 2019, as an additional drag on share prices.