U.S. Legal Cannabis Market Projected to Double to $41.5B by 2025
Five-Year Outlook for U.S. Legal Cannabis Industry Swells After Election Day, Revised California Receipts
December 7, 2020
Cannabis in 2020
December 14, 2020
U.S. Legal Cannabis Market Projected to Double to $41.5B by 2025
New Frontier Data Report Shows Passed Cannabis Legalization Initiatives and the Pandemic Increase Consumer Consumption, Igniting Flourishing Industry
Washington (December 9, 2020) – New Frontier Data, the most trusted authority in cannabis data, analytics and business intelligence worldwide, released a new report, Cannabis in America for 2021 & Beyond: A New Normal in Consumption and Demand, a special update to the U.S. Cannabis Report: 2020-2021 Industry Outlook. This revised study reflects the resized market projections following the passing of six cannabis ballot initiatives in five states and an analysis of cannabis consumer behaviors driven by the COVID-19 pandemic. Presented in partnership with Merida Capital Holdings, a leading private equity firm and operating company in the cannabis space, with investments in medical and adult-use production, dispensing, infrastructure, data and technology, the updated study examines the economic impact resulting from increased demand, consumption and legalization.
“History is happening before our eyes as the events of 2020 are fundamentally redefining the U.S. cannabis market and will continue to do so for years to come,” said Giadha A. DeCarcer, founder and CEO of New Frontier Data. “The pace and scale of growth the industry is experiencing is a compelling proof point that cannabis is evolving into a mainstream consumer category.”
“In 2021, we will likely see the legal cannabis market mature even further as it continues to cannibalize the much larger illicit market. This stratospheric growth presents incredible investment opportunities,” says Merida Capital Holdings Managing Partner Mitch Baruchowitz. “True to our motto ‘Responsible Investing Across the Cannabis Ecosystem,’ we are honored to partner with New Frontier Data to offer valuable industry research and deeper analytical insights so investors and consumers alike can make informed decisions.”
Key findings from the report include:
- Fueled by strong consumer demand, annual legal (medical and adult-use) sales are projected to grow at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 21%, to reach more than $41 billion by 2025 (from $13.2 billion in 2019)
- By 2025, an estimated 39% of total annual cannabis demand across the country will be met by legal purchases in regulated marketplaces (from 17% in 2019)
- Annual legal sales of medical cannabis are projected to grow at a 19% CAGR through 2025, to an estimated $16.3 billion (from $5.9 billion in 2019), while adult-use sales are projected to grow at a 23% CAGR, to $25.1 billion (from $7.4 billion in 2019)
- Increased consumer access to cannabis in newly passed legal markets is estimated to generate $1.2 billion in revenueby 2022
- Monthly consumer spending increased by an average of $149 between March and October in 14 legal markets analyzed
- Flower, with a market share trending down in the months before the pandemic, gained market share to account for half of product sales by late October
- 72% of consumers have changed their social consumption behaviors, and 33% of purely social consumers (those who only consume with others) have not used cannabis during the pandemic
Cannabis in America for 2021 & Beyond: A New Normal in Consumption and Demand is a special update to the U.S. Cannabis Report: 2020-2021 Industry Outlook and is available for download: http://newfrontierdata.com/updateUS2021
About New Frontier Data:
New Frontier Data is an independent, technology-driven analytics company specializing in the global cannabis industry. It offers vetted data, actionable business intelligence and risk management solutions for investors, operators, researchers and policy makers. New Frontier Data’s reports and data have been cited in over 80 countries around the world to inform industry leaders. Founded in 2014, New Frontier Data is headquartered in Washington, D.C., with additional offices in Denver, CO and London, UK.
New Frontier Data does not take a position on the merits of cannabis legalization. Rather, its mission and mandate are to inform cannabis-related policy and business decisions through rigorous, issue-neutral and comprehensive analysis of the legal cannabis industry worldwide. For more information about New Frontier Data, please visit: https://www.NewFrontierData.com.
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